FT chart: AI may lift trend GDP growth by just 0.2 points, far from singularity narratives
chrisalbon · x · 2026-10-20
Chris Albon shared an FT chart (from Wynne & Derr, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2025) as a reality check on AI predictions. US real GDP per capita (1990 $, log scale) has grown along a 1.9% trend since 1870. An AI-boosted path means 2.1% for ten years then back to trend — about a 0.2 percentage-point lift — while the wild 'tech singularity: end of scarcity' and 'human extinction' branches diverge absurdly from the historical record.
Related event: FT chart sparks debate: AI's GDP boost far below extreme scenarios(2 posts)→
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