a16z: mobile era says chips led first, but AI apps and services may win in the end

a16z · x · 2026-10-20

a16z amplifies TownAI founder Jean-Denis Greze on the question every AI app founder gets: what stops the labs from crushing you?

Historical analogy: A Morgan Stanley-sourced chart shows mobile internet stock performance came in three waves — semiconductors first (Qualcomm, ARM), then infra/devices (Samsung, Apple), with software & services (Google, Amazon) ultimately pulling ahead with the biggest gains.
Greze's take: Competing with your suppliers is inherently risky — OpenAI, Anthropic or Google could wake up and do what you do; the better answer is obsessing over customers and picking the right mix of frontier vs open-weight models, saving money and de-risking vendor dependence.

Implication: AI app-layer founders shouldn't panic about lab competition — value may migrate to apps and services over time.

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