Polymarket gives just 7% odds of a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-20
Polymarket puts only 7-9% odds on the US enacting an AI safety bill by December 31, 2026, and 43% by June 30, 2027. Qualifying bills must impose at least one of: release prohibitions or mandated federal review, training restrictions (e.g., compute caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. The post also cites Elon Musk's warning that superintelligent AI will be so persuasive many people could get "one-shotted" into believing whatever it tells them.
Related event: Polymarket puts odds of US AI safety law by end of 2026 at just 7%(2 posts)→
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