Anthropic CEO Rob Leclerc rebuts AI bubble talk: one AI year equals 5-10 years of past tech change
robleclerc · x · 2026-10-19
Anthropic CEO Rob Leclerc pushed back on "AI bubble" narratives in a detailed post:
- Bubble believers see only a first-order pattern without structural understanding of the drivers. Bubbles pop when they run out of oxygen — but AI is seeing ungodly revenue growth.
- AI capabilities and use cases are expanding 5x-10x faster than historical technological change, meaning one AI year equals roughly 5-10 years of past tech progress.
- Crucially, more AI usage creates more AI demand — fundamentally different from the Malthusian dynamics of the dotcom era (more websites didn't drive demand for more websites) or 2008 housing (more housing reduced demand).
The post quotes Peter Gostev on compute buildout: 25GW added in 2026 and another 50GW coming in 2027, with each GW delivering ever more effective compute via better chips and optimizations — "we are still early."
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