Chess math for ASI: Stockfish's ~1200 Elo edge means Carlsen wins 0 of 100,000 games
imjustnewatai · x · 2026-10-19
The author uses chess Elo math to make the idea of artificial superintelligence concrete: Magnus Carlsen sits around 2820 FIDE and Hikaru Nakamura around 2792, while Stockfish on a supercomputer is rated near 4000 Elo — a gap of roughly 1200 points.
At that rating difference, Carlsen would win 0 games out of 100,000 against Stockfish, drawing only about 150. The argument: a true ASI relative to humans would be like Stockfish facing Carlsen — in everything.
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