Ben Todd breaks down his 33% odds of virtual-AGI by 2033
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-18
Ben Todd explains why his odds on an AGI-timeline bet are only 33%: he puts 2/3 probability on an automated coder by 2033, then a further 2/3 that it triggers recursive self-improvement leading to virtual-AGI by 2033 — with a chance that AC arrives in 2027-2029 and converts even without RSI, though possibly slower. He expects a large GDP level effect, potentially double-digit growth, though GDP may not measure it well; robotics deployment would accelerate things further but likely not enough by 2033. He also assigns 20%+ to pacing constraints, and admits his best estimate might be 40-50%, yet the expected value of the bet still isn't high.
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