How CDT+GT decision theory handles bespoke bets at 50/50 odds
entirelyuseles · x · 2026-10-18
Decision-theory blogger entirelyuseles explains that for complicated bespoke bets, an agent must use CDT+GT decision theory directly to decide acceptance: reasoning "if heads, 0% chance of void; if tails, 50% chance of void given my information," it bets at 50/50 — because direct betting odds can only be derived from subjective credences for basic contracts, while bespoke ones go through CDT, and CDT+GT does something reasonable here.