AI optics stocks fell 25-31% in a week, but Taiwan server revenue still doubling
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-17
AI optics/networking had a rough week: $AAOI fell 31%, Ciena 26%, $COHR 25% in five sessions. The author argues this is a financing scare, not a demand downturn:
- At the DBS conference in Singapore (Oct 12), Broadcom and Intel both named cost of capital as the top constraint; hot CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected) plus profit-taking added pressure
- Taiwan server makers' September revenue YoY: Wiwynn +100% (NT$172.6B vs NT$86.3B), Wistron +87%, Quanta +77% — racks ship against orders placed months back, so money was still flowing through September
- The author's GPU rental index across 6 providers is up 17% in a month, supporting the read that AI demand hasn't turned
Key watch: Microsoft's Oct 28 capex guidance, with Alphabet and Amazon reporting the same week.
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