New Constructs calls Anthropic "most ridiculous IPO of 2026," says valuation 93% too high
mkheck · x · 2026-10-17
Research firm New Constructs calls Anthropic "the most ridiculous IPO of 2026," valuing the company as low as $144 billion — roughly 93% below the $2 trillion target.
- Hitting $2T would require a 10% profit margin sustained for ten years plus $3.6T annual revenue by 2035; the firm estimates last year's operating margin at about -175%.
- The report likens the IPO to WeWork's 2019 fiasco and argues it mainly creates exit liquidity for insiders, predicting OpenAI may run the same playbook in 2027.
- The poster agrees revenue is the strong point ($33B through September vs $4.6B in all of 2025) but doubts margins can close the gap, noting Accenture already caps Claude usage.
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