Analyst rebuts 'China floods HBM by 2028' claim, citing 5-7 year DRAM gap
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-10-17
Citing KB Securities' estimate of a 5-7 year mass-production DRAM gap between Samsung and China's CXMT, JOBhakdi pushes back on the narrative that China will flood the world with HBM by 2028.
- China hasn't come close to competing with TSMC on advanced GPUs; HBM is similarly complex and far from "normal" manufacturing — it's the absolute cutting edge.
- The emerging consensus in the AI trade: the most advanced technology in history actually runs on very advanced technology that money can't easily buy.
- Those who can make it (TSMC, Micron, SK) and those who can assemble it into GW-scale datacenters (SpaceX) have moats even larger than those assembling tokens into intelligence (Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta).
More from Infra
- vLLM gets autonomously optimized by AI agents with clear per-step performance gains, a first — vllm_project · 2026-10-17
- Jailbroken PS5s run local AI models at 100+ tokens/s via native PS5LM fork — ControlCAD · 2026-10-17
- 15 of 16 AI stock baskets lost to the S&P this month as SNDK falls 44% from highs — demian_ai · 2026-10-17
- Broadcom's Ultra and Jericho Are the Underrated Half of the AI Ethernet Story — BenBajarin · 2026-10-17
- Bitter lesson for local LLMs: below 100 TPS, you won't actually use it — TheZachMueller · 2026-10-17
- AI is pulling quantum timelines forward, but hardware is at the vacuum-tube stage — robleclerc · 2026-10-17