A missing parameter in scaling laws: H, the human effort behind learning signals

lateinteraction · x · 2026-10-16

Researcher shikibmehri argues scaling laws are missing a parameter H — the human effort/time leveraged to produce learning signal — and that most recent wins come from scaling H rather than N or D: ChatGPT beat OPT via heavy investment in instruction tuning and RLHF data; coding/math gains come from human demonstration data and process rewards; distillation lets competitors scale D while free-riding on your scaled H; data vendors profit because scaling H costs far more than D/N; and the highest-signal human effort delivers near-infinite returns. An accompanying chart contrasts Kaplan and Chinchilla scaling laws, which contain only N and D.

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