Anthropic IPO math: Amazon+Google set for ~$600B, FTX sold its stake 100x too early
simonada · reddit · 2026-10-16
An r/AnthropicBets infographic sizes up backers' paper returns at Anthropic's reported $2T IPO target (scaled from the $965B Series H, pre-dilution):
- Amazon + Google combined: $600B on roughly $26B invested — Amazon ($13B, mid-to-high-teens %) at $280–330B (23x), Google (14%, capped at 15%) at $280B (21x)
- Anthropic's 7 cofounders: $34B each (1.7% apiece), with 80% pledged to charity
- Microsoft + Nvidia (up to $15B, Nov 2025): $86B (6x)
- FTX stake buyers win big: Abu Dhabi's ATIC ($500M) at $50B and Jane Street ($100M) at $10B, both 100x
- FTX estate's blunder: sold its entire $500M stake for $1.3B in 2024 bankruptcy — worth $125–160B if held
- Ellison & Singh's $50M stake was forfeited and sold by US Marshals, now worth $5–10B
All figures are estimates from public reporting, not disclosed holdings.
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