Investor: Anthropic may never publish ARR again, was FCF-positive in Q3 with 75% compute on training
mjdramstead · x · 2026-10-16
Investor Gavin Baker sparked debate by arguing Anthropic will probably never report another ARR number — and that's healthy, forcing markets to track hyperscaler growth rates instead, which capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and open-source in one metric.
- Per third-party data, Anthropic turned FCF-positive in Q3 and reaccelerated in October on Opus 5.5; a roadshow in weeks will follow broad confirmation
- Unit economics look better than expected: positive FCF despite 75% of compute going to training (all from public reporting)
- OpenAI, per CFO Sarah Friar, is still growing at the same pace
Blogger Ed Zitron pushed back: hyperscalers don't break out AI revenue or actual megawatts, and Microsoft has lied about bringing "gigawatts" online, so none of these economics can be verified.
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