The Gap Between Very Good and Great: 1 in 100K Fills a Stadium, 1 in 100M Fills a Room
dbasch · x · 2026-10-16
In an X exchange on the AI talent debate, Nate Soarez argues the gap between being "very very good" and being "great" is tremendous — comparing Salieri to Mozart. dbasch responds with a framing: at 1-in-100,000, exceptional people are already rare enough to fill a stadium; at 1-in-100,000,000, they'd only fill a conference room.
The thread captures an ongoing industry argument about how scarce true top-tier research talent really is, and why the difference between the excellent majority and the breakthrough few can be one of magnitude rather than degree.
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