TSMC guides Q4 revenue above estimates at $52.3-54.3B, margin pressure persists
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-16
TSMC posted Q3 2026 revenue of TWD 1,494bn (+17.6% QoQ, +50.9% YoY) with a 66.4% gross margin, slightly below buy-side expectations of 67.5%. Q4 guidance of USD 52.3-54.3bn (+14% QoQ) beat broker forecasts, but the 65-67% GM outlook fell short.
Key points:
- 2026 capex guidance held at USD 60-64bn, with the next three years set to be significantly higher than the prior three; Q3 capex hit NTD 443bn
- Full-year 2026 USD revenue guidance of 44% growth; overseas fabs dilute GM by 2%, potentially widening to 3-4% as US fabs ramp
- 20 fabs under construction globally, including 13 advanced-node/advanced-packaging fabs in Taiwan
- AI demand seen strong long-term, evolving from chatbots to AI assistants; AI CPUs and networking chips emerging as additional demand drivers
The author argues margin pressure from 2nm ramp and overseas factories may persist, but total gross profit can still grow if revenue keeps delivering — the metric to watch.
Related event: TSMC Beats Q3 Estimates and Guides Strong Q4(3 posts)→
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