Dwarkesh: Anthropic staffer says AIs may match humans at AI research within 9 months
ziv_ravid · x · 2026-10-16
Dwarkesh Patel revealed that an Anthropic employee told him two days earlier they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months, based on inside information they can't share. He criticized the situation: lab insiders claim evidence that makes them more worried but aren't allowed to discuss it, making it impossible for outsiders to calibrate how concerned to be — and called on labs to make that evidence public. The poster mocks such unverifiable predictions as "rumormaxxing": no test set, no eval code, 100% vibes accuracy.
Related event: Anthropic Insider Expects AI to Match Human Researchers in Nine Months(2 posts)→
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