Chip equipment beats bull case: 2026 WFE seen at $153B, $278B by 2030
BenBajarin · x · 2026-10-16
Ben Bajarin's Diligence Stack report sharply upgrades its wafer fab equipment forecast: 2026 WFE at $153 billion (up 28% from 2025), $157B in the High case, and $278B by 2030 ($308B High) — above the bull case published nine months ago (January base was $125-129B, upside $145B). The upgrade follows ASML, Applied Materials and TSMC earnings plus Semicon West conversations pointing to the High case. The underlying thesis: tool demand has decoupled from wafer volume due to gate-all-around and backside power cutting 2nm tool reuse, HBM consuming 3-4x the wafer capacity of standard DRAM, and advanced packaging becoming a second bottleneck after lithography. The market, he argues, isn't grasping this step change, and the equipment cycle is getting longer and higher than history suggests.
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