OpenAI analysis: $852B valuation, $665B cash burn through 2030, profits deferred
Roadtochessmaster · reddit · 2026-10-15
A Reddit investment analysis of OpenAI: $852B valuation, $178B raised, 27% Microsoft ownership, $20B estimated 2025 revenue heading to $50B ARR by Sept 2026, 1.2B+ weekly users, 50M paying. The bear case: $665B cumulative cash burn through 2030, free cash flow pushed back a year, unclear moat with low switching costs, and Google/Meta's structural distribution advantages. Verdict: transformative company, but too risky at near-trillion valuation — wait for the S-1.
More from Venture
- Full Masterclass: Building an AI GTM Army That Runs Your Sales Pipeline — VibeMarketer_ · 2026-10-16
- Emergent Mind pivots from arXiv AI assistant to a product lab with thousands of weekly users — mhmazur · 2026-10-16
- Creator marketing pro builds CreatorFlow app with AI coding agent EazoAI from one messy prompt — HeyToha · 2026-10-16
- 10 security vendors rated "cooked" by AI are up 73% in six months, beating S&P's 19% — RealGeneKim · 2026-10-16
- Anthropic IPO math: Amazon+Google set for ~$600B, FTX sold its stake 100x too early — simonada · 2026-10-16
- 7 ChatGPT prompts that turn your skills into side-income ideas, from a viral thread — aitrendz_xyz · 2026-10-16