Jev 1.14.0 looks calibrated overall — but is 22 points overconfident on hard questions

shaun117 · reddit · 2026-10-15

A calibration eval of Jev 1.14.0 on 500 binary questions: overall ECE of 0.023 looks near-perfect, but slicing by difficulty reveals easy questions are under-confident by 7 points, medium is on target, and hard questions are strongly overconfident by 22 points (slice ECE 0.222 vs 0.12 threshold). Overall calibration metrics can hide difficulty-stratified miscalibration.

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