Ben Todd: dramatic AI recursive self-improvement hinges on how fast research returns diminish
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-15
Ben Todd argues that whether AI R&D progress leads to dramatic recursive self-improvement depends on how quickly returns to more AI research diminish—and company leaders have little reason to be able to predict that, though their intuitions are probably better than most.
The point targets a key uncertainty in automation-timeline debates: even if AIs soon automate most R&D labor, the shape of the diminishing-returns curve determines whether an intelligence explosion is possible.
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