Redwood's Ryan Greenblatt pulls timelines forward: automated coder by Feb 2028, full AI R&D automation by late 2028
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-15
Redwood Research researcher Ryan Greenblatt updated his predictions toward earlier automation of research engineering. His revised modal scenario: automated coder (AC) at Feb 2028, AI R&D parity at May 2028, full automation of AI R&D at Nov 2028, and significantly past top-expert-dominating AI by around July 2029.
His original median for full AI R&D automation was late 2030/early 2031, with a modal guess of mid-2029. Key roadmap points:
- EOY 2026: 1.5x as much frontier AI progress as 2025, mostly from eating overhangs; AIs accelerate AI R&D labor at Anthropic by 2.5x.
- EOY 2027: engineering at AI companies nearly fully automated, with AIs making serious inroads into automating research.
He cites stronger transfer and faster progress this year as reasons for the update.
More from AGI Musings
- Brin says Gemini 4 puts Google on the 'RSI treadmill'; critics demand hard data — daveholtz · 2026-10-15
- UCLA paper: productivity tech like AI can trigger a workplace "rat race" that hurts welfare — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-10-15
- AI-pilled veteran pushes back: diagnostics aren't the bottleneck, unrecorded clinical knowledge is — gregmushen · 2026-10-15
- Analysts see US labs far ahead at the AI frontier; China's next leap expected Q2–Q3 2027 — teortaxesTex · 2026-10-15
- Survey: apathy, not privacy, is the real barrier holding back consumer AI adoption — omooretweets · 2026-10-15
- DanielleFong: whoever cracks multiplayer AI software development first will make a trillion dollars — nptacek · 2026-10-15