Gartner: 80% of neoclouds dead by 2030, $4T+ in AI assets face writedowns
SumitGup · x · 2026-10-15
Gartner quantifies the AI infrastructure bubble risk in a new report.
- AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1T on AI infrastructure in 2026, plus $6T more between 2027-2030.
- Data center owners would need $8.5T in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover capex and hit a 12% ROIC, but attributable enterprise/consumer AI revenue is forecast to reach only $3.6T.
- Gartner predicts 80% of neoclouds will cease operations by 2030, and 3.5T+ of spending — over $4T in assets by 2032 — faces impairment risk.
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