SpaceXAI vs Google: analysts peg third-place AI player's run rate at $4.5–5B alongside Gemini
thedealdirector · x · 2026-10-15
Infra Play #157 argues the disputed third-place AI player is "SpaceXAI" (SpaceX+xAI+Cursor), with a combined Cursor+xAI run rate of $4.5–5B—likely in the same ballpark as Google's unpublished Gemini inference revenue.
Key figures from Google's earnings call:
- Alphabet revenue up 24% YoY; Search & Other +17%, YouTube ads +13%
- Google Cloud revenue up 82%, backlog at $514B
- Nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 use Gemini Enterprise
- New cost-efficient Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite models announced
Anthropic and OpenAI remain the undisputed top two for enterprise adoption, while xAI's failure to dent the market fuels the ranking controversy.
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