ASML order book stretches to 2030 as it raises prices on key tools for the first time
BenBajarin · x · 2026-10-14
Creative Strategies analyst Ben Bajarin's house view on ASML's Q3 2026:
- ASML has shifted from proving it can build enough tools to getting paid more per tool, with customers asking to commit to 2029 and 2030 capacity before ASML is ready to accept orders.
- Q3 confirmed lithography demand is running ahead of ASML's planned output in both 2027 and 2028, and the company has used that leverage to raise prices on its most critical tools for the first time in its history.
- The firm's WFE High case already bakes in ASML's 2026 systems revenue and a roughly 85-system Low-NA plan for 2027.
More from Venture
- Analyst: CoreWeave equity goes to zero if the AI cycle sputters — SumitGup · 2026-10-15
- B200 GPU rents up 31% YTD while most AI infra IRR models assume declines — AccBalanced · 2026-10-15
- Workday Rising: returned CEO Aneel Bhusri's 're-start-up' AI play and the C1.ai acquisition — jonerp · 2026-10-15
- beehiiv lists what vibe-coders miss: deliverability, suppression lists and 3M emails/minute infra — itsOmSarraf_ · 2026-10-15
- TinyFish goes free, hits 100k users in 10 days, but revenue trails its $1.6M credits — FinanceYF5 · 2026-10-15
- Factorial's Matt Hartman on backing Hugging Face early and why all startups pivot — every · 2026-10-15