Lab ranking says Anthropic leads OpenAI, with Chinese labs grouped behind xAI
scaling01 · x · 2026-10-14
scaling01 endorses a 'vibe ranking' of frontier AI labs: Anthropic > OpenAI >> Google >> Meta > xAI >= DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba, Zhipu, ByteDance > MiniMax. He expects the order to hold roughly in 12 months, with non-frontier labs falling a few months further behind depending on compute. He'd add error bars, since some labs' outcome distributions are much wider. The original chart author cautions the numbers are directional, meant to capture current capability and 12-month velocity.
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