Sizing the personal AI assistant market: maybe $140B by 2030, split five ways
rickasaurus · x · 2026-10-14
Pushing back on hype around Meta's Muse / personal AI assistants, an investor runs a first-principles market sizing for 2030: e-commerce at $5T × 30% agent share × 3% take rate ≈ $45B, plus subscriptions at 4B users × 10% paying × $20/mo ≈ $96B — about $140B total. He argues the market will be perfectly competitive with minimal switching costs, depend heavily on cooperation from giants like Amazon, and be split among 5+ players (Google, SpaceX, one of OpenAI/Anthropic, a free local-first Apple), while warning even this forecast is far too aggressive.
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