Anthropic merge data suggests new models go internal only ~5 weeks before release
ziv_ravid · x · 2026-10-14
Analyzing Anthropic's published merge plot, zivravid notes new models appear to be available internally only 5 weeks before public release—poking fun at rumors about secret dangerous internal models.
Key findings from the quoted scaling01 analysis:
- Weekend merge share rose steadily from 7% to 18% (+0.33 pts/week); Mon–Wed declined most.
- Time to double daily merges shrank from 67 days (Jan–May) to 41 days (May–Jul) to 20 days (Aug–Sep).
- Merge growth accelerated 5 weeks before Mythos Preview and Opus 4.7, and again before Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5, suggesting internal availability only weeks ahead of launch.
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