Epoch AI: China 2.7x More Exposed to Chip Supply Shocks Than US
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-13
Epoch AI published a report, Semiconductor-Augmented Input-Output Tables, that disaggregates semiconductors in international input-output data to measure each country's exposure to chip supply disruptions.
- In 2022, every $1,000 of Chinese final demand generated $15.2 in revenue for semiconductor producers — 2.7x the $5.7 generated by the same US spending.
- The gap widens for chips made by China's neighbors: 4.7x for Taiwan and 4.0x for South Korea.
- In a combined scenario of a Taiwan supply shock plus China–West decoupling (2–3 years after the shock), Chinese advanced processor prices rise 17-fold and Chinese real gross national expenditure falls 3%, versus a 20% price rise and 0.6% fall for the US.
- The gap survives robustness checks, though the exact magnitude carries significant uncertainty.
Related event: China's Chip Supply Exposure Is 2.7 Times That of the US: Study(2 posts)→
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