IMF Forecast: AI Adds No Measurable Productivity Yet, Bust Would Cost Twice the Boom's Gain
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-13
The IMF's latest forecast assumes no extra productivity growth from AI, and finds economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity despite task-level gains.
Key points:
- The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies.
- In the IMF's models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029.
- AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.
Related event: IMF Forecast Assumes Zero AI Productivity Gain(2 posts)→
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