Apollo's Torsten Slok Flags a Trillion-Dollar Inconsistency in Tech's AI Cash Flow Forecasts
SuB8u · x · 2026-10-12
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok highlights a "trillion-dollar internal inconsistency" in the AI investment thesis:
- Tech sector operating cash flows are forecast to soar to $2.4 trillion by 2028 (from $1.15 trillion in 2025), while operating cash flows of its customer sectors — consumer, healthcare, industrials, energy — are projected to stay nearly flat.
- Either tech's customers will generate far more cash than analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic: "who exactly will be writing all those checks to buy AI services?"
One of the most-cited skeptical frameworks on the AI capex cycle: infrastructure spending is wildly outpacing customers' capacity to pay.
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