Eli Lifland puts AI takeover odds at 67%, Gary Marcus asks how he got there
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-10-12
Forecaster Eli Lifland estimates broadly superhuman AI could arrive any year (10-15% by EO2027, 50% by EO2030), AI takeover odds at 67% without slowdown, and 40% extinction conditional on takeover. Gary Marcus publicly presses him on how the 67% figure is derived.
Related event: AI Forecaster Lifland Puts AI Takeover Odds at 67% Without Slowdown(4 posts)→
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