Jevons paradox doesn't guarantee AI creates jobs—general intelligence substitutes, not complements
signulll · x · 2026-10-12
signulll criticizes CEOs and VCs for repeatedly citing Jevons paradox to argue cheaper AI means more jobs, calling it mostly PR.
- Jevons isn't guaranteed: consumption only rises if demand responds enough to falling prices, and even explosive consumption growth says little about future employment.
- The key gap: past automation hit narrow tasks, so workers moved to adjacent ones. General intelligence is a general substitute that eats the adjacent tasks too.
- Cheaper intelligence becomes demand for tokens, not humans—unless humans complement the cheap thing, which is precisely what's in question with AGI.
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