AI 2027 team re-evaluates: reality is running at 70-90% of predicted pace
Aizkmusic · x · 2026-10-12
In a debate over when a superhuman coder arrives, @jessicita quoted the August 2026 update to the AI 2027 scenario:
> The team re-evaluated AI 2027's predictions; reality seems to be going about 70-90% as fast as predicted.
Extrapolated, that puts a superhuman coder in 2028 rather than March 2027.
On the other side, @anpaure argued for a looser definition: superhuman means full delegation — give a sufficiently defined task, forget about it for a month, and get a result better than with a human steering; the crossover point where human+AI > AI flips to AI > human+AI. He also holds that current SOTA models are already superhuman in many ways, while @skinnnnnnnner called predictions that this won't happen by 2027 absurd — "this is basically already the case."
Related event: AI 2027 Team Reassesses Forecast: Reality Running at 70-90% of Predictions(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- RL scaling papers suggest experimental throughput is the first real bottleneck to RSI — eigenron · 2026-10-12
- Beff Jezos backs anti-doomer argument: alignment-first pause locks humanity into permanent freeze — beffjezos · 2026-10-12
- IMF Says AI Will Hit 40% of Jobs Worldwide, With 60% Exposure in Advanced Economies — CurieuxExplorer · 2026-10-12
- Composer built by 25 people in 2 months as single-point-of-view becomes AI's moat — nicolechirps · 2026-10-12
- Jevons paradox doesn't guarantee AI creates jobs—general intelligence substitutes, not complements — signulll · 2026-10-12
- Education as an AI safety area: Ruxandra Teslo argues classrooms are an alignment frontline — mikeflache · 2026-10-12