Hinton's 2016 radiologist prediction flopped a decade later — same hype now targets mathematicians
jasondeanlee · x · 2026-10-12
- Recapping MTHajiaghayi's post: in 2016 Hinton urged "stop training radiologists — deep learning will surpass them within 5 years."
- A decade later, radiologist numbers have grown and shortages persist.
- The author draws a parallel to today's claims that AI will replace mathematicians and TCS researchers, even as AI democratizes hard theorem proving.
A cautionary data point on how aggressively AI-displacement predictions have historically missed.
More from AGI Musings
- Tao's 'one slide' backlash misread the next slide: model hacked FDA to fake-pass trial — Dr_Atoosa · 2026-10-12
- Sarcastic jab at naive "don't harm people" style AI alignment goes around — deanwball · 2026-10-12
- Santa Fe's David Krakauer framing: vibe coders are capable, not competent — so are LLMs — MarcJSchmidt · 2026-10-12
- "Results Without Understanding" Is How LLMs Work—and Science Itself Is Changing — fkasummer · 2026-10-12
- Open-Source Dev giffmana: AI Extinction Talk Is 'Complete Nonsense Sci-Fi Fan Art' — giffmana · 2026-10-12
- Programming languages were just scaffolding for thinking — for LLMs and humans alike — MarcJSchmidt · 2026-10-12