AI 2027 Update: Reality Tracking at 70-90% of Forecast, Superhuman Coder Slips to 2028
jessi_cata · x · 2026-10-12
The AI Futures Project (Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, Brendan Halstead) published a Q2.5 2026 timelines update: timelines are slightly shorter, with notably improved modeling.
- Reality is progressing at roughly 70-90% of the pace predicted in the AI 2027 scenario; extrapolated, superhuman coder would arrive around 2028 instead of March 2027.
- The original model anchored Automated Coder (AC) via METR's time-horizon measurements, which is weak due to unclear mapping and disputed superexponential trends.
- Two new anchoring methods: coding uplift (speedup AI gives engineers at AGI labs, their favorite) and revenue.
- Overall: forecasts largely unchanged, confidence somewhat higher.
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