VC Gavin Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic Failing Would Actually Be Best for Future VC Investments
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-10-11
Investor Gavin Baker debated @BetterIRR on AI venture demand. BetterIRR argued that roughly half a trillion dollars poured into non-lab AI startups is artificially boosting demand, since no one knows the real demand for AI — and much VC money would dry up if OpenAI and Anthropic failed.
Baker replied that the two poster children failing would actually be the best thing possible for all future VC investments, a fact obvious to all VCs — at least those who don't hold stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic. But he clarified he doesn't expect them to fail: he sees them co-existing in an increasingly stable equilibrium with Muse, Grok, open-weight models, and perhaps Gemini, though reaching equilibrium shares will take a long time. He also noted that open-weight tokens are highly profitable and growing much faster than OpenAI and Anthropic.
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