Cognition CEO: frontier models will serve 2% of workloads at 98% gross margins
AccBalanced · x · 2026-10-11
Cognition CEO Scott Wu argues the absolute frontier models will run only 2% of workloads (maybe 4-5%), with the other 98% on commoditized models — yet frontier models will still charge 98% gross margins. He says aggressive model routing is the key emerging discipline and still very early. In the same interview, SemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic could reach $600-700B combined revenue by December 2027, possibly $1.5T, and warns trouble if AI revenue is only $3T by 2031.
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