Survey: median AI expert puts 5% odds on severe human disempowerment
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-10-11
NathanpmYoung references a survey finding that the median AI expert assigns a 5% probability to severe human disempowerment from AI. He speculates that the person behind such decisions agonized over the result and felt caught between different positions, and notes the survey "didn't optimize hard" but that "it's easy not to lie." The exchange hints at subtle tensions within the AI safety community over survey methodology and risk messaging.
Related event: Viral "5% extinction risk" AI expert survey figure mislabeled, critics say(8 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- CS veteran pushes back on AI-breaks-crypto fears: decades of bounties, no shortcuts, P!=NP — markjeffrey · 2026-10-11
- tinyfool: humans are just the bootloader for silicon-based life — tinyfool · 2026-10-11
- X's Nikita Bier: 'Intellectual property' loses meaning when intellect becomes free — nikitabier · 2026-10-11
- SF Tech Week takeaway: AI buzz shifts from agents to the infra agents need to run reliably — May_F1_ · 2026-10-11
- When Models Get Smart Enough, 'Taste' Becomes More Important Than Raw Intelligence — DynaBeast · 2026-10-11
- Dev proposes COGITATOR as a functional replacement for the term "AI" — solyarisoftware · 2026-10-11