Why AI won't replace primary care doctors soon: the evidence gap and base-rate problem
gregmushen · x · 2026-10-11
- @gregmushen responds to the 'AI delivers near-free, perfect instant primary care' thesis: conceptually imaginable, practically far off. AI can speed up intake and help doctors find issues faster, but replacement is a long way out.
- Core arguments: only 1 in 10 medical interventions is backed by high-quality evidence, so better models don't close the gap; primary care often lacks follow-ups and connectable data, so you don't know state or outcome; you can't freely experiment and errors are extraordinarily costly — self-driving is orders of magnitude easier and still unsolved.
Related event: Doctors Debate Whether AI Can Replace General Practitioners(2 posts)→
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