JeffLadish: Pre-ASI AI can't break defense dominance, neither US nor China can win with it
JeffLadish · x · 2026-10-11
AI safety researcher JeffLadish argues that neither the US nor China will be able to use AI to dominate the other.
His reasoning: pre-ASI capabilities likely aren't enough to overcome the existing defense-dominant landscape, while ASI itself is not controllable enough to enable a survivable "win."
In a follow-up he adds that nuclear deterrence and the large oceans between the two countries remain very difficult obstacles to overcome.
Related event: AI Researcher: Neither US nor China Can Dominate via AI Before ASI(2 posts)→
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