AI Impacts criticized for leaving uncorrected the misleading "5% extinction" expert-survey claim
jessi_cata · x · 2026-10-11
- The 2024 AI Impacts press release claimed the median AI expert gave a 5% chance of extinction, but the survey actually asked about extinction OR similarly permanent and severe disempowerment — a meaningful difference.
- The author shows AI Impacts' own wiki citation list collects numerous outlets (Business Insider, New Scientist, Nature Briefing, etc.) repeating the simplified "5% extinction" framing, with no correction anywhere on the page; the research reports page confirms this is the official press release.
- Takeaway: the misleading framing wasn't just journalists' fault — one of the most-cited numbers in AI risk discourse was distorted at the source.
Related event: Claim of 5% AI extinction risk from experts disputed(2 posts)→
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