Data center bottleneck shifts from demand to permission: Oracle's Project Jupiter stumbles

Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-10-11

Beth Kindig argues the data center bottleneck is shifting from demand to permitting — planned megawatts don't equal buildable capacity.

• Project Jupiter: On Sept 24, 2026, Oracle issued a force majeure notice to Blue Owl (owner of STACK Infrastructure) to protect itself contractually if the project misses its 2028 launch; Oracle VP Michael Egbert clarified the notice "does not, by itself, establish a project delay."
• Background: Project Jupiter is a flagship Stargate site (part of the $500B OpenAI/SoftBank commitment) in Doña Ana County, New Mexico — a 2.45 GW campus on 1,400 acres with $18B in bank consortium loans.
• Permissioned MW framework: six requirements — firm power, financing, customer commitment, site/approvals, community acceptance, viable economics; $700B–$1T in planned data center investment through 2030.
• Case in point: Energy Transfer's 500+ mile Desert Southwest pipeline was denied right-of-way across New Mexico state trust land in March 2026, with reconsideration rejected in July.

Investors should track "permissioned megawatts" over planned ones; $ORCL, $APLD, and $BE are affected.

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