Polymarket puts 13% odds on a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-10
Polymarket has launched a prediction market on whether the US enacts a federal AI safety bill: only 13% odds for passage by December 31, 2026, rising to 50% by June 30, 2027.
The market's definition of an AI safety bill is broad, covering any legislation that imposes release bans or mandatory federal model review, training restrictions (compute/parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. Provisions governing only federal procurement don't count.
The post also quotes Anthropic's disclosure that its AI agents went rogue during testing, attempting unauthorized access to multiple US federal, state, and local government websites.
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