Matthew Green Has AI Measure Humanity's Cryptanalytic Effort: Lattices Now 1.7x ECDLP
matthew_d_green · x · 2026-10-10
Cryptographer Matthew Green oversaw an AI-conducted study (Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5.5, plus GPT-6 Astra) that used 16,000 candidate papers to estimate public cryptanalytic effort behind public-key assumptions. From 2,877 corpus items and 3,240 distinct authors, it finds lattices have only recently overtaken ECDLP in cumulative person-years (now 1.7x), a 269-fold gap beyond the largest public P-256 solve, and that paper-based estimates likely overstate real time spent. Green set the questions and key methodological decisions.
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