Dean Ball on 8 underappreciated things to watch over the next decade, from moon robots to Lean
deanwball · x · 2026-10-10
AI researcher Dean Ball published a long thread listing underappreciated developments he expects over the next decade:
- Space: robot-driven lunar construction by the mid-2030s, with the US the default leader.
- Rising substitutability of hydrocarbons, meaning fewer supply shocks and lower, more stable prices.
- Public-market access to private assets, plus creative debt instruments, extending US leadership in emerging-tech capital allocation.
- State and local government AI adoption, where most American public services actually get administered.
- AI-accelerated diffusion of frontier math into practical applications, collapsing decades-long lag times.
- Lean and formal proofs: AIs will become superhuman at writing Lean, with spillovers into cybersecurity and contract drafting/negotiation.
- Autonomous boats as the practical fix for America's shipbuilding problem.
- Autonomy making labor-intensive, diverse agriculture economical.
Related event: Dean Ball Lists Eight Reasons for Optimism About the Next Decade(3 posts)→
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