At 99% p(doom), max-EV trade is going insanely long: the AI-doom hedging debate draws in Tyler Cowen
dlbydq · x · 2026-10-09
dlbydq pushes back on AI-doom hedging: if your p(doom) is 99%, you can't spend profits from shorting the market, so the max-EV trade is to go insanely long. He likens doom hedging to buying dollar-denominated insurance against the dollar hitting zero.
csvoss concedes it's a strong counterargument with no adequate rebuttal yet, while Tyler Cowen notes he's covered it—suggesting long volatility or long/short combinations as a hedge.
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