Chollet: AI capex is growing super-exponentially while progress is only sub-linear
fchollet · x · 2026-10-09
François Chollet observes that most measures of AI progress fit an exponential from 2023–2026, while AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential — the growth rate itself is increasing.
Modeling AI as a system that converts external investment into progress, the response is sub-linear: input is growing faster than output. Since super-exponential external injections aren't sustainable long-term, he argues the industry must eventually generate matching exponential profits to "close the resource loop" — without self-funding, today's pace can't sustain itself.
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