Memory stocks are pricing downturns 2-3x deeper than history, Bajarin analysis finds
BenBajarin · x · 2026-10-09
Ben Bajarin's new Diligence Stack report analyzes what memory stock valuations imply:
- Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung trade at 5.4-6.8x run-rate earnings—classic peak-cycle multiples implying investors expect earnings to fall
- Against his Core Memory model (assuming 40% mid-cycle net margin), current prices imply a next downturn 1.5-2x the last two cycles for Micron, 2.5-3x for Samsung, and 3-3.5x for SK hynix
- Notably, the supplier with the most HBM in revenue is priced most pessimistically—the opposite of what his thesis suggests
- Supporting data: customer agreements covering 35%+ of Micron revenue through 2030, $150B in minimum-price obligations, HBM repriced higher for 2027, no supply relief until 2028
He doesn't predict timing, but notes most investors assume today's margins can't hold, with a sharp correction expected late this decade.
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