Polymarket puts just 5% odds on a US AI safety bill passing this year
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-08
On Polymarket, the odds of the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill by the end of the year sit at just 5%; 13% by end of 2026 and 50% by June 2027. The market's definition is broad, covering release bans or mandated federal review, training restrictions (data/compute caps), usage restrictions, and human-in-the-loop requirements; provisions only governing federal procurement don't count. The tweet also notes Denmark is moving to ban non-consensual AI deepfakes.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against Near-Term US AI Safety Legislation(2 posts)→
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