Quantum computing's 'five years away' promise: Microsoft, IBM, Google timelines keep slipping
DavidLinthicum · x · 2026-10-08
The author catalogs a decade of slipped timelines: Microsoft promised a topological qubit by end of 2018 and a commercial quantum computer within five years (neither materialized); IBM said mainstream quantum in five years in 2018 (still research and demos by 2023); D-Wave's claimed enterprise advantage remained narrow and disputed; Google's 2017 five-year commercialization call missed; Rigetti remains experimental. The author says he isn't anti-quantum, just against "timeline theater" — the real question is which business problem quantum solves today better, cheaper, and more reliably than classical computing, and until there's an answer, budget approvals stay off.
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